What do absent leaders say about the future of the Pacific Islands Forum?

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1. 0:06Speaker 1: Kia ora, I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is The Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The
2. 0:16Speaker 1: diplomatic chessboard is getting complicated in the Pacific. At least five leaders have pulled out of the Pacific Islands Forum in Palau this week. Meanwhile, China's Pacific envoy says there
3. 0:28Speaker 1: will be consequences for Taiwan being allowed to send representatives to the forum. It's while the US and New Zealand team up to co-fund a Cook Islands port upgrade, a
4. 0:39Speaker 1: potential blow for China, who has a controversial strategic partnership.
5. 0:44Speaker 1: with the island nation. Today on the front page, University of Waikato international law professor Alexander Gillespie is with us to break down why leaders are skipping the forum and
6. 0:55Speaker 1: how China's leverage in the Pacific is changing. So, Al, a number of leaders have chosen not to participate. What's
7. 1:06Speaker 1: the significance of the likes of Kiribati, Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa and the Solomon Islands not going?
8. 1:14Speaker 2: It's either a coincidence or it's something to be very concerned about. Because when you have a major event and it happens once a year and 18 countries come together
9. 1:23Speaker 2: for the most premier timing to discuss issues of utmost importance and five of the leaders can't turn up, it's not great. The reasons they're not coming, you'd have to
10. 1:32Speaker 2: ask them. And it's either a coincidence in timing or there's something significant going on and there's a boycott occurring.
11. 1:40Speaker 2: This is bad for the meeting at the moment, and it's got significance for next year when New Zealand hosts, because New Zealand will need to know why these countries aren't turning up so we can fix that problem in advance.
12. 1:50Speaker 1: Has the Pacific Islands Forum lost its punch, so to speak?
13. 1:55Speaker 2: Variations of the gathering have been around since 1971, and there's been many issues that they've had to deal with over many decades. The issues are increasing in intensity and
14. 2:05Speaker 2: the need for cohesion is greater than ever. But when they can't speak together on the most pressing items of the time, then yes, it's losing its punch. It loses its impact. And people don't respect it to the same degree.
15. 2:17Speaker 2: You expect our leader to go and Mr. Luxon is going and the Australian Prime Minister to go and that also is occurring. But if other leaders can't make it, it's a sign of disrespect as well.
16. 2:27Speaker 3: It's not good.
17. 2:28Speaker 1: Over the decades, have members generally agreed on most things, or have there been things that they haven't agreed on?
18. 2:35Speaker 2: There's been a lot of debate over the decades, and you can think about debates over succession and over who's going to be the leader of the group. There's been strong debates over climate change as well in the past, and whether countries like Australia and New Zealand have been
19. 2:46Speaker 2: doing enough to carry their weight. So it's not new, but what you're seeing right now is a multiple number of crises at the same time. And their increasing in temperature, which means we need to speak together with a common voice,
20. 2:58Speaker 2: is greater than ever.
21. 3:00Speaker 3: Yet that's dwindling right now.
22. 3:02Speaker 1: What is the likelihood of coming together and speaking with one voice? Because last month, foreign nations couldn't come to an agreement on a joint statement on China's ballistic missile
23. 3:11Speaker 1: test in July. But Luxon reckons this time around that they could still come to a joint decision.
24. 3:17Speaker 2: Is he dreaming?
25. 3:19Speaker 3: I think he's got his fingers crossed.
26. 3:21Speaker 2: And if they can reconcile themselves to some very good diplomatic language, that will be an achievement. But at the most basic level, it's in no one's interest right now in the Pacific to have any countries testing nuclear capable
27. 3:32Speaker 2: weapons in our backyard. The problem is whether you condemn the test with being just for China or any countries, because other countries test in the Pacific as well. And
28. 3:43Speaker 2: whether we have a blanket approach or whether we single some out. But hopefully the diplomats will find some language in between that means everyone can be pleased.
29. 3:50Speaker 1: Well, because China has an increasing list of friends in the Pacific, most recently the Cook Islands, is there anything
30. 3:59Speaker 1: wrong with Pacific nations, I suppose, diversifying their partners beyond just the usual Australia and New Zealand?
31. 4:07Speaker 2: Much of the Pacific is developing an economic status. Some of it is least developed, which means it's not just poor, it's dirt poor. And so you need money to come
32. 4:17Speaker 2: into this region. And it's not just from countries which are neighbors. It's also from those which are outside the region.
33. 4:24Speaker 2: It's also from the private sector. And so we need to be trying to find greater ways to cooperate for the good of the Pacific. And that means you have to be very careful if you exclude any assistance coming in.
34. 4:35Speaker 2: But at the same time, you want to understand what connections come with it. And so to have Taiwan come into the region may be good, depending on what terms it comes in on. And trying to find greater cooperation
35. 4:46Speaker 2: between China and more traditional countries in the region like Australia and New Zealand also can be good. The hard part is trying to find that sweet spot in the middle.
36. 4:53Speaker 2: Because right now everything's become so contested and it's become an either-or situation.
37. 4:59Speaker 3: And that's not in anyone's interests.
38. 5:00Speaker 1: What is the significance of Taiwan being represented? And why might China not be quite happy about that?
39. 5:08Speaker 2: This is a very delicate question. diplomatic game going on right now over questions of status and invisibility and visibility.
40. 5:16Speaker 2: No one's suggesting that Taiwan become a member of the Pacific Island Forum. No one's suggesting that they become an official dialogue partner, like with serious status that can have
41. 5:25Speaker 2: direct diplomatic relations. They are a development-related organization, and so that means they can help out with some projects. The issue is how visible Taiwan is in this forum or not.
42. 5:38Speaker 2: And some countries want them to be invisible at all levels, and Taiwan itself wants to have some visibility. It's not a question of equality or joining the organization. It's a question of trying to get the right category for them
43. 5:50Speaker 2: and whether they have any visibility. We fell over from this in 2024. We also fell over in 2025, and we're having another major stouch in 2026. And so when
44. 6:00Speaker 2: China says that there'll be consequences if Taiwan has some kind of representation, It may be that what you're seeing with the five countries not turning up are those consequences.
45. 6:09Speaker 2: It might not be that as well. It could be something else. But China takes this issue of any visibility of Taiwan in these.
46. 6:16Speaker 3: Areas very seriously.
47. 6:17Speaker 1: Should those leaders who aren't showing up have better excuses than, oh, my schedule didn't align?
48. 6:25Speaker 2: If you fail to turn up to a meeting because you missed a bus, I think they would be quite concerned.
49. 6:30Speaker 2: And for the most serious meeting in the Pacific right now, because you look at the issues that you've got, you've got security, you've got climate change, you've got development, you've got illegal drugs.
50. 6:38Speaker 3: They need to be together.
51. 6:39Speaker 2: They need to be speaking with one voice and a cohesive strategy going forward. And so not to turn up, you would need a very good excuse for it to be credible.
52. 6:47Speaker 1: Meanwhile, New Zealand's putting $ 17. 5 million into building a port in Penryn in the northern Cooks, co-funded by the US
53. 6:57Speaker 1: with $ 84 million New Zealand dollars on their side. Could this be a potential blow for China?
54. 7:04Speaker 2: There's a number of things to think about here. This is related to the situation in the Cook Islands, and it doesn't appear to be a loan. It appears to be a grant. So it's not going to be the
55. 7:14Speaker 2: Cook Islands going into debt. And so that's a very good thing because a lot of the money that's given to the Pacific right now has strings attached to it, it has to be paid back, and that gives undue leverage.
56. 7:24Speaker 2: And so for countries like New Zealand and America to be trying to give more assistance as opposed to debt is commendable. The focus on dual-use structures like port is
57. 7:34Speaker 2: also good, but this is showing that the Cook Islands is much more under the preserve of New Zealand and the United States. The Americans are particularly interested in it because of the critical minerals in the region. and the
58. 7:46Speaker 2: port will be very helpful for that relationship. But it's the Cooks that are signing the deal, not New Zealand on behalf of the Cooks. And so this is showing the sovereignty of the Cook Islands at the same time.
59. 7:56Speaker 2: So in many ways, everyone's winning out of this right now, except China.
60. 8:06Speaker 1: The situation in Honeara doesn't affect this.
61. 8:09Speaker 3: I am leading the delegation.
62. 8:10Speaker 1: As to what's behind it, well, there's enough.
63. 8:13Speaker 3: Detail for one to be highly suspicious.
64. 8:16Speaker 2: Kiribati hasn't sent its president, instead dispatching a special envoy who was an ambassador to China.
65. 8:23Speaker 1: Do you have any comments about this? I appreciate it if you give me time to focus on the meeting.
66. 8:28Speaker 1: I appreciate it. When it comes to the port deal and the US being interested in it, Donald Trump hasn't
67. 8:36Speaker 1: shown a huge amount of interest in the Pacific until now.
68. 8:41Speaker 1: Why might that be?
69. 8:42Speaker 2: Because non-traditional partners are getting greater influence in the region.
70. 8:47Speaker 2: And your point about showing a lack of interest is correct, because if you look at the amount of funding that was going into the Pacific in recent years, it's fallen by nearly a third. Now, a lot of that's got to do with the American losing America and Mr. Trump
71. 8:58Speaker 2: losing interest in the region. And so they see transactions and aid in a much more direct relation transactional approach.
72. 9:06Speaker 2: And so they're trying to show the influence that the United States has to countries which are important to it.
73. 9:11Speaker 2: But the traditional aid is likely falling to the wayside.
74. 9:14Speaker 2: And that's why other initiatives like climate change become so much more important because they pick and choose.
75. 9:19Speaker 3: What they will support.
76. 9:20Speaker 1: Should we be concerned that China and the US is kind of fighting over our own backyard?
77. 9:25Speaker 3: The goal should be cooperation.
78. 9:27Speaker 2: In areas of security, the Pacific should be aligned to its traditional partners. But in everything else, in development, in climate change, in fighting the drug trade, we should be
79. 9:37Speaker 2: trying more areas where we can work together, not against each other, because that's in the good of the Pacific, as opposed to everything else. But right now, everything is complicated.
80. 9:46Speaker 2: Whether you're talking about one of these big issues, or whether you're talking about the representation of Taiwan and the official designation, everything is contested.
81. 9:53Speaker 1: So during the forum, what do you see as the biggest elephants in the room?
82. 9:57Speaker 2: There's going to be a lot of discussion about the new relationship between Australia and Fiji as a military alliance, and whether that is folded out into other countries in the Pacific being joined to join it, because there's been
83. 10:09Speaker 2: some suggestion from the Solomons that a new relationship for a Pacific focus only for security is developed. whereby external partners such as America, such as China, are kept out.
84. 10:21Speaker 2: And there's merit in that, but there's a question about whether Australia and New Zealand would be considered external or not.
85. 10:28Speaker 3: Climate change will be very.
86. 10:29Speaker 2: Important because the impact of climate change on the Pacific is the biggest threat right now. And the problem you've got is in terms of both trying to fight it at the global level, like where the countries will continue
87. 10:41Speaker 2: to lead the fight, and that's where New Zealand may have a problem if we decide to back away from the Paris Agreement. And secondly, adaptation, the money that they need to adapt to climate change and each emergency that
88. 10:52Speaker 2: comes towards them.
89. 10:54Speaker 3: The next issue, the illegal drugs trade.
90. 10:56Speaker 2: And what you're seeing is a surge of illegal drugs coming towards the Antipodes. They come towards New Zealand and Australia because we have the highest prices in the world, and they're using the Pacific as a conduit. You need
91. 11:07Speaker 2: greater police cooperation, you need more intelligence sharing, and you need capability between the forces.
92. 11:13Speaker 3: And that is possible, but it's going to take a lot of work.
93. 11:16Speaker 1: In terms of the climate change agreement, how vital is it that New Zealand doesn't back away from it?
94. 11:24Speaker 2: If New Zealand backs away from the climate change Paris agreement, it would be a disaster for our relationship with the Pacific because this is their foremost threat and you need
95. 11:35Speaker 2: an international multilateral solution to this problem. And so in many ways, it's not just about the leadership in this debate.
96. 11:42Speaker 2: It's about actually even being part of it. The challenge you've got is that some countries like America have now walked away from the Paris Agreement and its foundation document,
97. 11:51Speaker 2: the 1992 Framework Convention. If New Zealand does the same, there's no international response to climate change. And if you're dealing with the Pacific, and this is their foremost concern,
98. 12:01Speaker 2: you would burn so much goodwill that New Zealand has been trying.
99. 12:03Speaker 3: To rebuild recently.
100. 12:04Speaker 1: A huge amount of our international aid budget does go to the Pacific and it does go to climate adaptation efforts in the Pacific. Do you think that we're doing enough?
101. 12:15Speaker 2: I think we're taking steps in the right direction. And credit where credit's due, we've increased the amount of money that we've given to the Pacific and that part of the budget has been well ring-fenced. But it's no longer
102. 12:26Speaker 2: just about trying to make it connect to the international goals, but making sure that renewable energy and adaptation is done at the local level. And so there's new initiatives that have been built within the Pacific Island Forum that need direct support.
103. 12:39Speaker 3: We can do more and we should do more.
104. 12:41Speaker 1: What is the importance of, like, so what should we be looking at this forum to guide us as to how we host the next forum in New Zealand?
105. 12:52Speaker 2: Trying to get the documents sorted out in advance, trying to get the agreements resolved before they arrive in New Zealand.
106. 12:59Speaker 2: You want it to be very large fanfare. You want it to be a spectacular event, but you don't want these disagreements and uncertainty when people don't turn up as expected.
107. 13:07Speaker 2: You don't want to have a large scrap over the status of countries like Taiwan, whether they are or are not attending. And you want to have something tangible come out of it at the end. And so that might be more police cooperation around illegal drugs trade.
108. 13:18Speaker 1: Is it wrong to think of an us versus them kind of narrative in terms of, well, the cooks need to choose us or China?
109. 13:27Speaker 3: I would not recommend it.
110. 13:28Speaker 2: I think we've got to try to find a middle ground whereby we come together for the good of the Pacific.
111. 13:32Speaker 2: There are some issues that you have to make a choice which way you lean, and that's in terms of defense and security. And that should be traditional relationships. But
112. 13:42Speaker 2: outside traditional security, with development, with climate change, with fighting crime, we need to be working together. And that's for the good of all countries.
113. 13:50Speaker 1: Does it surprise you that the forum hasn't been able to come to a united statement in regards to the Chinese missile tests?
114. 13:59Speaker 2: I think it's unfortunate. But the goal, to my mind, is it should be about the demilitarization and the neutral position of the Pacific overall. And it shouldn't be about trying to choose one country over the other. but what
115. 14:10Speaker 2: China did was a very unfriendly act. But other countries also test missiles in the region, and if you want to prohibit one, you should prohibit all. We should be consistent about trying to demilitarise the Pacific and make it
116. 14:22Speaker 2: as neutral as possible. Having said that, the security ties with the traditional countries like Australia and New Zealand should remain.
117. 14:28Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Al.
118. 14:30Speaker 3: You're welcome, Chelsea.
119. 14:34Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
120. 14:41Speaker 1: at nzherald.co.nz. The Front Page is hosted and produced by me, Chelsea Daniels. Kane Dickey is our studio operator, Richard Martin,
121. 14:51Speaker 1: our producer and editor, and our executive producer is Jane Yee.
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